Newsletter – April 2021

Every year, Al Majal Business Park (AMBP) hosts Ramadan Iftars throughout the Holy Month at both of our properties in Burjessia and North Rumaila.

Economic revival hinges on the country’s energy sector, where several high-profile developments have taken place in recent weeks, with oil exports in March decreasing by 0.8%m-o-m, at 3.36 Mb/d. Yet, revenues rose to US$ 5.8 B, up from just over US$ 5 B in February, with the average price of Iraqi crude standing at US$ 63.3/bbl in March, up from US$ 60.5/bbl in February. The 2021 Budget, first presented in December, was finally approved on March 31, preserving the country’s recent currency devaluation (~23% to the US dollar), and projecting a spending budget of US$ 89.7 B and a dinar-denominated deficit of US$ 19.5 B. Iraq expects to earn oil revenues of US$ 47.5 B[1] based on an oil price of US$ 45/b and ~3.5 Mb/d of exports, which, in dinars, should significantly improve state earnings. This has caused Fitch Ratings to revise the Outlook on Iraq’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to Stable from Negative and affirmed the IDR at ‘B-‘. 3.5 Mb/d is a significant jump from Iraq’s current ~3 Mb/d exports, which it is hoping to realize from new production coming online from state-run fields that have had to keep production shuttered-in due to OPEC+ constraints.

A roundup of the latest developments in the Iraqi energy markets is summarized in the table below.

Global demand has exceeded expected volumes in Q1 2021 slightly, up 0.1 Mb/d at 90.5 Mb/d, according to OPEC, supported by cold weather in northern Asia, Europe, and the US, as well as stronger economic indicators on the back of successful vaccine deployment in major geographies. Some bearishness however continues to surround the full return of road and transportation fuel demand in OECD Europe, due to the on and off lockdowns to battle new coronavirus strains, but is expected to spike as the summer holiday season approaches later in the year. Non-OECD demand will continue improving due to positive momentum from Q4 2020 carrying forward in China where industrial activity indicators had also witnessed an uptick in India, but now a severe surge in Covid-19 cases accompanied by lockdowns and flight suspensions could threaten up to 700 000 kb/d of road and aviation fuel demand.

In the Middle East, overall demand increased by ~3% in Q1 2021 compared to Q4 2020. However, February’s oil demand fell by 0.3% y-o-y in Saudi Arabia and 0.2 Mb/d in Iraq, showing a continuation of lower oil demand in the region. Transportation fuel continues to take the biggest hit, with gasoline and jet fuel making up most of the declines in Saudi Arabia. PMIs have stabilized, even though economic activity has not yet reached pre-CoVid-19 levels. This has informed some noteworthy deals in the energy sector in recent weeks, summarized in the following table.

Top Energy Deals in the Region

Iraq’s Oil Minister, Ihsan Abdul-Jabbar, has announced that the country plans to increase its oil production capacity to 8 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2029, compared to current production of around 3.8 million bpd that factors in OPEC-mandated cuts.

Iraq’s Ministry of Oil has announced preliminary oil exports for March of 91.3 million barrels, giving an average for the month of 2.95 million barrels per day (bpd), down slightly from the 2.96 million bpd exported in February.

The Iraqi Drilling Company (IDC) has announced its intention to conclude contracts with Chinese and American companies operating in Iraq to drill and rehabilitate dozens of oil wells in the country.

The Iraqi Cabinet has approved the renewal of two contracts at the Majnoon oil field. Chinese company Anton Oilfield Services Group (Antonoil) is to continue to provide Integrated Field Management, while the American company KBR will provide Engineering, Procurement and Construction Management (EPCM).